Guinea: Coup interrupts Conté succession

Published:  15 January, 2009

The constitutional transition of power in Guinea, following the death of the country’s president, Lansana Conté, has been interrupted by a military coup, led by a number of junior officers calling themselves the National Council for Democracy and Development.

Under the constitution, power was supposed to pass to the speaker of the parliament, Aboubacar Sompare. No single figurehead has emerged within the coup’s infrastructure, although the little-known Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, Guinea’s former head of fuel supplies, has been acting as the junta’s spokesman – a position reportedly chosen through the drawing of straws.

The stability of Mr Conté’s government had been declining along with his health, as trade unions and political opposition, which was largely denied the platform for legitimate challenges to the leadership caused disruption to the economy.

Guinea’s mining industry represents more than 10 percent of global bauxite production and a modest, but not insignificant, output of 12.6 tonnes per year of gold. This mineral wealth has reduced the country’s reliance on international aid. However, under Mr Conté’s administration, GDP growth has been relatively low for the region, averaging 2.7 percent since 2000, with a low of 1.7 percent in 2007, attributable to labour strikes and social unrest which led to around 200 deaths. Standard Chartered Bank’s estimates put 2008 growth at around 4.5 percent. 2007 foreign direct investment was approximately $260m.

However, Guinea marks low on social indicators, with the UNDP Human Development Index ranking it 166 out of 177 countries. Governance is weak, and the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index puts Guinea at 173 out of 180 nations. In this context, the local support garnered by the Praetorian revolution that followed Mr Conté’s death, ostensibly to prevent those in his inner circle from taking control and preserving the status quo, is more understandable.

A statement released by the junta’s leaders at the time of the coup was egalitarian in its wording. “Guinea could have been more prosperous. Unfortunately, history and men have decided otherwise,” it read. “Embezzlement of public funds, general corruption, impunity established as a method of government and anarchy in the management of state affairs have eventually plunged our country into a catastrophic economic situation which is particularly tragic for the overwhelming majority of Guineans.”

At least superficially, the junta has lived up to its promise to begin a transition to civilian rule, appointing banker Kabine Komara as prime minister and revising its initial promise to hold elections in 2010, instead promising a poll before the end of 2009. However, all political and trade union activities remain suspended.

However, reports of arrests of senior military officers loyal to Mr Conté in Conraky hint at instability within the coup’s relatively young leadership, according to some analysts. While the coup was prosecuted peacefully and there is relative calm on the ground in the country, the likelihood of a backlash by other factions within the military could lead to the country’s leadership changing once again.

“The country’s critical mining sector is unlikely to be initially harmed since the regime, whatever its composition, will need all the mining export revenues that it can get,” says Eurasia Group Middle East and Africa analyst Sebastian Spio-Garbrah in a research note. “However, it is very likely that the new regime may seek to extort monies from current operators and prospectors and that a new democratic regime may try to impose heavier royalties and taxes on the sector in order to provide much needed social services.”

Rio Tinto, Anglo Gold Ashanti, Rusal and Global Alumina all have operations in the country, and these companies may experience brief interruptions to their exports if the situation worsens, Mr Spio-Garbrah says. It could, he notes, be as long as five years before there is any kind of long-lasting stability, and in the interim, “mining operators there will be under constant extortionary pressures and those that refuse to play along may have their licenses yanked.”

“Longer term, mining projects in Guinea may face delays and exports could fall as operating costs rise, and legal, political, security and reputational risks grow for foreign operators.”

The international community has been divided in its response to the situation. Senegalese president Abdoulaye Wade initially gave tentative support to the coup’s leaders, and the regional economic association Ecowas reserved judgement, despite calls to eject Guinea from the bloc. Guinea’s membership was finally revoked on January 10. The US has suspended some aid to the country, while France has said that it will continue its support during the “transition period.”

Clarity of purpose in the European Union’s response is likely to be diminished by the passing of the association’s presidency from France to the Czech Republic, according to a report by the consultancy Oxford Analytica, which notes that the EU is legally prohibited from dealing with any state where the constitutional order has been usurped. “Most [EU] members will be more concerned about the stability of surrounding states, where they have invested heavily in peacekeeping, and in maintaining access to Guinean mineral resources,” the report says.

Mr Wade’s support, according to a further piece of research by Oxford Analytica, could stem from a desire to expedite the transition to a stable, democratic government in Guinea, in turn influencing the stability of neighbouring Guinea-Bissau, which, the report says, is “the usual vector” for violence in the Casamance region on Senegal’s border.

Nigeria, whose president Umar Yar’Adua is currently president of Ecowas and de facto chief mediator, was a proponent of Guinea’s suspension from the union. Oxford Analytica attributes this to a desire by Mr Yar’Adua to press on with a more overt regional leadership role following a period of introspection enforced by internal and international criticism of the elections that brought him to power in 2007.