Now is the time to focus on Rwanda
By Patrick Noack and Maddalena Campioni | Published: 31 March, 2010
Fast forward to the year 2025 and find yourself in Kigali, Rwanda’s thriving capital, where there are now direct flights to all major global cities. Few children are in the streets as they are busy in school, with homework or other formative activities. There’s an unmistakable international flair. Compared to the past, it is evident that international aid does not feature in any significant way in the national budget and planning – years of attracting investment and streamlining bureaucratic processes have paid off.
Rwanda is now a tourist destination, a country with multilingual human resources, an established service-centred economy and a transit route for vetted minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Still, the optimism and “soul” that has attracted so many investors to this country remains unchanged and is still the primary pull factor for many foreigners from the region and globally.
This picture is in line with Rwanda’s 2020 vision. Also, recent trends and indicators corroborate the path in this direction. Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s energetic president, works tirelessly on the global stage to portray a picture of Rwanda that is leaping towards such a future. That outlook appears a virtual certainty: presidential elections this August are expected to re-confirm Kagame’s leadership for another seven years; Rwanda is the latest country to join the Commonwealth, accessing a limitless Anglophone market and network; it has joined, and now chairs, the East African Community; the African Development Bank is headed by a Rwandan national.
Should international attention hone its efforts on the current flashpoints of Darfur, Somalia and Zimbabwe, and other troubled regions of the world since all is well with this tiny mountain country? Is it good planning and policy to only focus on emergencies?
Though Rwanda’s future looks secure, imagine, for example, an alternative outlook: fast forward now to a markedly different 2025, in which Rwanda’s vision and intentions are still the same, but in this scenario Kigali is in turmoil: free press has been shut down and political progress is marred by protests against a government that for decades has carried out pro-forma consultations without implementing meaningful reforms. Life is not bad in Rwanda, if you toe the line. The private sector is sluggish due to a sea of red tape, and the economy has stagnated without transformation towards services and added value. The political elite concentrate power, resources and opportunities on themselves and their families. To the outside world this picture is obfuscated by clever PR tactics and a barrage of “reforms”, committees and other donor-driven tick-box indicators.
What if, in 2025, in this kind of Rwanda, the country is seen as run by a “benevolent” but strong-armed government, still recognised internationally as “doing a good job”? What if this translated into an acceptable way of running a country, and the international community still rewards such a governance style? Soon other EAC leaders emerge and adopt a similar style. Others in Africa may also seize on this opportunity and a power-grab follows, to the detriment of the population. Rwanda may be small, but it is a tipping-point country: it has the potential to lead the way on the continent because of its significant international stature.
