Zambia: Mwanwasa's succession
Published: 01 December, 2008
Rupiah Banda inherits a legacy of sound economic policy and political stability. But he faces stiff challenges in managing Zambia’s economy and international relationships before presidential elections in 2011.
Zambia’s political process faced an unexpected challenge in 2008 with the death of President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa on 19 August at the age of 59. As dictated under the Zambian constitution, vice-president Rupiah Banda was required to call a presidential by-election within 90 days. In the election, contested on 13 October, Mr Banda, 71, and the Patriotic Front’s Michael Sata, 71, emerged as the front runners.
A career diplomat, Mr Banda is popular with Zambia’s rural population and came to prominence under Kenneth Kaunda’s United National Independence Party. He joined the ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) when Mwanawasa succeeded Frederick Chiluba in 2002. His opponent, Michael Sata, is the former chief executive of the MMD, known for his fiery rhetoric and populist politics that give him strong appeal amongst Zambia’s large urban population.
In the end, Sata narrowly lost the election with 38 percent of the popular vote, to Banda’s 40 percent. Despite allegations of fraud by the Patriotic Front, and the declaration by Sata before voting had begun that he would not accept defeat, the election passed without serious incident. In a year that began with post-election violence in Kenya, and the on-going struggle for power in Zimbabwe, Zambia’s relatively peaceful transition has abated fears of a trend of African elections which result in violence and political infighting.
Banda will now see out Mwanawasa’s term and inherits a legacy of reform that earned the former president the respect of his citizenry and the international community. “His government was honest and straightforward,” says Francis Beddington, head of research at Insparo Asset Management, who argues that the Mwanawasa government marked a shift from populist to more practical and managerial politics in Zambia, particularly in economic terms.
Benefiting from unusually high prices for Zambia’s main export – copper – Mwanawasa presided over a period of relative prosperity in the country. During his seven years as president, he secured $6bn in debt relief under the World Bank’s Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative; stabilised the economy, with inflation dropping to single figures; and made genuine attempts to tackle corruption.
As Rupiah Banda takes over, copper prices have fallen from a high of $8,000 to $4,000 per tonne, sparking concerns about his government’s ability to sustain current levels of public expenditure.
While Insparo’s Mr Beddington says that diversification in the Zambian economy in recent years has diminished the importance of copper, Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at Chatham House, argues that the declining copper price has the potential to put a brake on the Zambian economy. “This is a difficult period to be becoming president in Zambia; the mining companies are all very pessimistic over the next few years. The days of bounty have come to a close.”
Mr Vines insists that many of the reforms of the Mwanawasa period were only made possible by high metal prices. A failure to deal with an economic slowdown in an effective manner, says Mr Vines, could play into Mr Sata’s hands for the scheduled presidential elections of 2011. “If we’re having growing unemployment and lack of service delivery, Sata will be in quite a strong position in a relatively balanced playing field to challenge Banda. Firebrand, charismatic politicians tend to do well in recessions.”
Zambia’s relationship with the West is expected to remain stable, but such a boost to Sata may have implications for the country’s ties with China, which has invested heavily in the copper mining sector. “I think in terms of China in Africa, Zambia is a good example of where the honeymoon period ended very quickly,” Mr Vines says.
During the 2006 presidential election, Sata campaigned on an anti-China platform, tapping into a current of discontent towards Chinese entrepreneurs. He eventually backed down from his position, and while such rhetoric did not feature prominently in the 2008 election, it remains to be seen, Mr Vines argues, whether China is used as a scapegoat for the expected economic downturn.
Professor Stephen Chan of the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) says that the differences between Sata and Banda are exaggerated. “They have very different personalities, there is no doubt about that,” he observes, but suggests that this does not translate into significant differences in policy. “Almost all of the serious candidates in the election basically pledged that there would be no change in the direction that Mwanawasa was taking the country. So Sata might play the part of the venomous populist, but he would not at all have been a disaster as president.” Mr Chan argues that hostility in Zambia is directed more towards Chinese entrepreneurs and their cultural insensitivities than at the value of China as a bilateral partner.
