Algeria
Published: 07 July, 2009
Abdelaziz Bouteflika has been re-elected for a third term in a largely uncontested election, but speculation about his health has raised concerns about the succession process in a key partner for stability in the Maghreb.
After lifting the two term limit on the Algerian presidency in a constitutional amendment last year, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 72, was returned to office for a third term in elections held on 9 April, 2009.
With major opposition boycotting the election, Mr Bouteflika fought a largely uncontested campaign, and won the election with 90.24 percent of the vote, according to official results. Observers attribute low voter turnout – estimated to be significantly below official figures – and a muted international reaction to the election, to a sense of apathy towards the political process inside Algeria, and the strategic concerns of its foreign partners.
With ongoing speculation about his health, the election of Mr Bouteflika also raises questions about his succession and the country’s political and economic prospects during his third term.
“There was a tremendous amount of apathy,” says Geoff Porter, North Africa analyst at Eurasia Group. “Voters felt that they didn’t have much chance of changing the outcome of the election, so they didn’t participate.” The election has also elicited very limited reactions internationally. Mr Porter suggests that this is partly due to limited opportunities for investment in Algeria, which, he says, is often a driving force behind foreign policy.
There have been signs that Mr Bouteflika’s government has adopted a more nationalist approach to economic policy. In a speech last July he indicated a reversal of a nine-year policy of promoting foreign investment in Algeria, and the 2009 budget included a 15 percent tax on dividend transfers by foreign companies to their home countries.
“Capitals had rightly assessed who the winner of the election was going to be, so there was very little point in expending political capital,” adds Mr Porter.
Zeinab Al–Assam, head of Middle East and North Africa forecasting at Exclusive Analysis, says that concerns over stability and security also play a role. “Foreign governments or businesses, oil companies in particular, probably favour stability and continuation over volatility. The worst possible outcome for them would be an Islamist takeover or some kind of coup.
“He is unlikely to improve the [business] environment for them,” she says, “but they know what to expect with Bouteflika, which is very limited liberalisation.” Nevertheless, Ms Al-Assam adds that there are signs of decreasing interest from foreign investors. “The last bidding round they had in December 2008 provided very disappointing results. They had 16 exploration zones on offer and only five attracted bids. So it’s possible that they might relax the terms slightly, and I think the prime minister hinted at that recently in an interview, though he did not say how.”
Amel Boubekeur, head of the Arab Maghreb project at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, argues that political disillusionment rather than apathy explains the lack of domestic interest in the election. “We should not confuse demobilisation with de-politicisation. People are still interested in politics, but not as it is used by the current government,” she says.
